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Tuesday, September 29, 2020

No longer silent or boomers, we are now the "Disposable Generation"


I live in Utah. Specifically, I live in Utah Valley. Here is a graph of the latest resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic here in Utah.


You might notice the substantial increase in the Daily New Cases. Apparently, this increase is of little concern to either the residents of Utah (with some notable exceptions) or the state or county governments. Even though stiff measures were imposed during the runup of the COVID-19 virus in May, June, and July which resulted in a decrease into August. Those in charge of the governments and the general population decided that their interests in having children go back to school and the economy was far more important than the lives of hundreds and perhaps thousands of older Utah residents. Also, the state did not want to antagonize the vocal minority of people who opposed wearing masks. Hence, there is no need for a statewide mandate for wearing masks because the virus is only going to infect people who live in the areas where there are current cases.

The results of this were apparent when I made an extremely short visit to a local Walmart in Vernal, a small community in eastern Utah. Less than half of the people in the store were wearing masks and almost all of those who were wearing masks were Walmart employees. The situation in Utah Valley is about the same. Even though there is a local mandate for wearing masks, I still see huge groups of younger people with almost no masks evident.

Why is this? Even if you discount the fact that a significant number of people who claim to be "conservatives" are adamantly opposed to masks based on claims of freedom, liberty, and constitutional rights, there is also the factor that the "virus only makes old people sick and only old people die from the virus." In short, we have our rights and we don't care if old people die. 

Even though the graph above clearly shows the effect of mandated social distancing, limits on the size of gatherings, and masks, there is still not enough social consciousness in Utah Valley and elsewhere that might have prevented the huge increase in Daily New Cases in September and on into October. 

What does this mean for old folks like me and my wife? If means that we are now marginalized to the point of risking our lives to go out into public gatherings. There does not seem to be any point in the increase in the rate of infection that will trigger either the government entities or the general population that will trigger any reasonable or effective response. 

Old people may die more readily from the virus but young people are effective carriers and constitute a pool of infection that is easily passed on to old people. In a recent New York Times article entitled, "Utah Covid Map and Case Count," the 14-day change in the cases was a 107% increase. 

Now some comments about the case count. The case count is really a meaningless number. The real number is the percentage of positive cases regardless of the number of tests. Let's say they do 100 tests. Right now, the rolling 7-day average of positive cases in Utah is 13.7%. If you do 100 tests with that rate you will have about 13-14 positive tests. If you do 1000 tests, you will have 130-140 positive tests. If you think about it, at the local Brigham Young University, where there have been over 1000 positive tests so far this semester, if you did a test to all 43,000 people at the university, you would probably have over 5,891 positive tests. So, the inescapable conclusion is that the number of new cases is politically controlled by adjusting the number of tests. The number of new cases is also politically controlled when none of the known methods of control are abandoned. 

Right now, 8 out of 10 deaths reported in the U.S. have been in adults 65 years old and older. We have become the Disposable Generation.

4 comments:

  1. What you say is true. I am fortunate to live in a state (Massachusetts) with a great governor who is following the science and following it up with the appropriate actions. Please stay safe.

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  2. I think there is an error in your math in the second to last paragraph
    You say " If you do 100 tests, you will have 130-140 positive tests" should that not read "....do 1000 tests" ?

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  3. I appreciate what you are saying. I were a mask at all times - nobody knows who has it or not, am over 50 - with 2 student boys- HS and College and a husband that has international work. I pray I dont get this virus.

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