Some people eat, sleep and chew gum, I do genealogy and write...

Saturday, August 4, 2018

Researchers discover how to transmit information at 661 Terabits per second

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41566-018-0205-5#author-information

This article, published on July 2, 2018, in its Abstract makes the claim that the named researchers have been able to send a 661 Terabits of data, equivalent to the more than the total current internet traffic through a single-mode 30-core optical fiber. The content of the article was reviewed by arstechnica.com in an article entitled, "661Tbps through a single optical fiber: The mind boggles."

I am not going to attempt to explain how this is done, but I can suggest that, if this is the case, then the cost and time of transmitting data around the world are about to drop precipitously. 

Augmenting Human Intellect and Genealogy


Artificial intelligence (AI) as applied to computer systems has been the topic of extensive research for many years. It is inevitable that some aspects of genealogy have been and will be affected by AI. However, rather than replacing humans and automating genealogy, most AI research today is aimed at a way of augmenting human activities or intellect. So what are the areas of genealogical research that can be augmented?

To understand what is happening now and what may be effects of AI in the near future, we need to understand what areas of the methodology involved in tracking down one's ancestors and relatives could be enhanced or accelerated by the application of programs utilizing AI. If we examine the basic functions of genealogical research, we can see those areas presently affected by AI and those areas that will be affected.

AI is defined as the study of "intelligent agents": any device that perceives its environment and takes actions that maximize its chance of successfully achieving its goals. Genealogical research involves several distinct functions. These can be characterized as follows:

  • Searching or reading historical documents with the goal of finding information about ancestral relationships
  • Analyzing the information obtained and determining its application to the extension of a relationship structure, i.e. extending a pedigree
  • Recording the information found in a way that includes the exact location where the information was obtained
  • Organizing the information in a way that allows others to understand the relationships discovered
  • Comparing or sharing the information added to the corpus in order to allow others to view and utilize the information obtained
  • Determine if the information is already present (duplicate record detection)
  • Communicating the information in a way that allows others to take advantage of the work without duplicating the search (duplicate work detection)
  • Connecting the information obtained to the existing information in a way that allows continued research
If you think about these and other possible functions of the genealogical research process, you can see that some, if not all of them, have already been measurably affected by intelligent computer programs. There are, however, some gaps that reflect some of the more difficult problems that remain yet unsolved. 

For example, optical character recognition technology allows a computer program to read some digitized text. Then search programs such as the current "record hint" technology provide suggested relationships expressed by the OCR text. These programs replace the need to manually transcribe the text, but some of the record hint technology is still dependent on manual indexing of the records by extracting specifically selected elements. These limitations are imposed by the idiosyncratic nature of the content and arrangement of information in historical documents. The ultimate existing limitation of text recognition is the inability of computer programs to efficiently recognize the content of handwritten historical documents. Although character recognition has made great strides, the parsing of the text within the documents is still an obstacle. This can be done with standardized entries with specifically identified information such as an address on an envelope or entries in a census form but becomes a major challenge with documents that lack formal structure such as letters, obituaries, and other handwritten documents. 

Another example comes from utilizing the current record hint technology. Although with indexed documents, the accuracy of such hints is very high, there is still a significant need for manual review of the hints to assure that they apply to the appropriate individuals. 

Record entry, especially when there is repetitious information can be measurably increased with automated entry suggestions. The danger here is that automatic information is entered when the suggestion is actually inappropriate.

Organizing masses of genealogical data has always been a huge challenge. However, the advent of large, unified, collaborative online family trees has measurably decreased the need for individual storage. 

The other aspects of the genealogical research process such as duplicate detection, communication, watching for changes in individual records and connecting relationships are semi-automated but still subject to improvement. 

Genealogy programs are becoming "smarter" all the time, but there is still a substantial need for individual human intervention and that state of affairs is not likely to change in the near future.

Thursday, August 2, 2018

Apple Stock over $1 Trillion

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45050213
If you ever need a story about fortunes lost, you can tell mine about owning a lot of Apple stock back when it was down to $6 a share. Unfortunately, we sold the stock. They used to tell about buying land in Phoenix, Arizona on Camelback Road (a wealthy part of town) for $5 an acre, but I think this story beats that one.

A New Rule Added: The Rules of Genealogy Revisited Again



I published the first six Rules of Genealogy back on July 1, 2014. See "Six of the Basic Rules of Genealogy." This short list included the most famous and basic rule of genealogy: "When the baby was born, the mother was there." I added four rules in a post back on August 11, 2017, entitled, "New Rules Added to the old: The Rules of Genealogy Revisited." Summer must be my time for thinking of new rules. You can go back to these two original posts to read about the details of each rule.

Here is a list of those original six rules from 2014:
  • Rule One: When the baby was born, the mother was there.
  • Rule Two: Absence of an obituary or death record does not mean the person is still alive.
  • Rule Three: Every person who ever lived has a unique birth order and a unique set of biological parents.
  • Rule Four: There are always more records.
  • Rule Five: You cannot get blood out of a turnip. 
  • Rule Six: Records move. 
In 2017, I added these four rules:
  • Rule Seven: Water and genealogical information flow downhill
  • Rule Eight: Everything in Genealogy is connected (butterfly)
  • Rule Nine: There are patterns everywhere
  • Rule Ten: Read the fine print
Well, we now have another rule.

Rule Eleven:
Even a perfect fit can be wrong

The application of this rule takes some time. However, my wife and I have both had occasion recently to find instances of the application of this rule. We have found two people with the same name, born in the same year, with same wife's names, who lived in the same small town, and in my case, who died in the same year. Which one was the right ancestor? What this rule illustrates is that you cannot do too much research. It takes a considerable effort to separate people with the same names and other events in their lives and decide which one is the correct person. There is always a danger in grabbing the first name that seems to fit. But even when you find that the person comes from an appropriate location and has appropriate dates, there is still a measure of uncertainty about historical/genealogical research. You might think of this rule as the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle of Genealogy. 

This rule came to me in the middle of the night. I had to get up and write it down so I wouldn't forget it. I suggest that if you don't know the basic rules of genealogy, you are probably floating around in a lake of information without a paddle. 

Wednesday, August 1, 2018

Decades-long Mystery Resolved by MyHeritage's CEO Gilad Japhet


A Decades-Long Mystery Finally Put to Rest

I think the introduction to this recently posted MyHeritage video is more than sufficient. Here is what it says about this video on YouTube.com
After countless attempts to locate long-lost family members who disappeared in the former Soviet Union, Rani Markovich always assumed that he would never be able to reunite with his grandfather’s lost family. All this changed when Rani enlisted the help of Founder and CEO of MyHeritage, Gilad Japhet. With Gilad’s help, the Markovitch family’s decades-long mystery was finally put to rest. Read their intriguing story that includes separation, the KGB, the Iron Curtain, and more.  
Watch the emotional family reunion between the two cousins who met for the first time.
I might note that MyHeritage.com currently has 9.1 billion records ready to search for your family.

Tuesday, July 31, 2018

Comments on Traditional Genealogical Research


As genealogy, either seriously undertaken or casually pursued, continues to dramatically change, it is important to reflect on whether or not the changes in genealogical methodology occasioned by the claimed technological advances add real value to the process or are only window dressing presented as advances. At the same time, we need to consider the plight of those who cling to traditional methodology and make sure that we are not abandoning much that has a continuing value.

Presently, those who adhere to traditionally oriented genealogical research methodology are decreasing in numbers rather rapidly. 1975 is the date of the introduction of the first personal computers and that date can represent the watershed between the strictly traditional method of doing genealogical research and all the subsequent changes. A quick calculation shows that, as of the date of this post, if you were born in the year personal computers were introduced, you would now be 43 years old. But in reality, if you could push the 1975 year date back at least ten years because those younger than 10 years old in 1975 are not likely to remember a world without personal computers. So the effective watershed date for those who began doing genealogical research before personal computers became available is limited to people who are in their late 50s or early 60s.

Why then do we still have people who distrust and eschew the use of computers in genealogical research? Probably for the same reasons we have a significant number of people who reject modern society in its entirety and still use horses for their major means of transportation.

What are the main features of the "traditional" pre-computer genealogical research? Well, these features are shared by research in almost any topic or subject. Since I did a significant amount of original research prior to 1975 and much more before computers became generally available in the 1980s, I have a personal perspective on the changes. I started doing genealogical research in 1982 and that happened to coincide with my first purchase of a personal computer; an Apple II. Of course, early genealogical research before the introduction of the internet was merely a computerized replication of paper-based genealogical research. The cumulative impact of technology is still being felt and appreciated.

Over the years that I have been publically writing about genealogy as a topic, I have addressed this issue several times, but since technology continues to rapidly evolve and as those who lived before personal computers continue to die off, I feel it is important to understand where technology is taking genealogical research and whether or not we are losing anything in the process.

Let me start with a hypothetical situation. Let's suppose that M was beginning her genealogical research in the pre-computer era. M could start by recording what she personally knew of the names and associated information about her immediate ancestors. Assuming she had contact with some older relatives, she could also write letters asking for further information. If she was acquainted with others interested in genealogy, she could reach out for help and suggestions. She may or may not have decided to record her information in a pedigree and family group record format. Unless she happened to be submitting her research to some sort of organization such as a genealogical society or for publication, her method of recording the information she obtained would be entirely idiosyncratic. Depending on her persistence, over time, her genealogical records consisted of pages of notes, letters and responses, photos, documents and other memorabilia.

Where did she get information about her family before the internet and when she ran out of living family members to question? She had to physically visit libraries and archives and copy out the information she found. However, there are some issues that were going on that are not obvious. M had little or no way to determine if other members of her extended ancestral family were working on the same individuals and families. As a side note at this point, I would mention that I spent more than 15 years doing genealogical research and accumulated a two-foot-high pile of family group records before I decided that I have probably acquired most of what had already been done about my own family. Here we have the core issue of pre-computerized genealogy: the total lack of ability on the part of a researcher to determine if other people had already done the research. In my hypothetical, M could spend her entire life doing genealogical research and find out that much of what she had done was duplicated somewhere else. In effect, it does not matter how meticulous or careful M was in her research, there was always a possibility that she was simply rehashing what someone had already done and likely published. This fact is abundantly illustrated by the huge number of duplicate entries in the current online genealogy family tree programs.

Even if we minimize the impact of the potential for duplication, M's ability to discover information about her family beyond what had been accumulated and shared with her, was extremely limited. It could take years for M to extend her family line a few generations. The next major obstacle was M's ability to determine if the information she had acquired was accurate or not. Since the norm at that time was that researchers worked in total or semi-isolation, it was always possible that she had made a wrong conclusion based on faulty or insufficient documentation and was researching unrelated families. As I reviewed the work that had been done in my own family primarily from the accumulation of family group records in the Salt Lake City, Utah Family History Library, I found and I am still finding inaccurately connected families.

What happened to M's research when she died? In some cases, it was passed down to another interested genealogist. In many cases, it was entirely lost and the subsequent researchers had to start over from scratch. I had the benefit and burden of inheriting a huge amount of family history. I am still working on sorting and recording all of the tens of thousands of pages of information about some of my family lines. At the same time, I am painfully aware that some people have almost no information about their families when they acquire their interest in doing research about their family.

Let me extend my hypothetical situation a little. Let's suppose that M works through all of her research and publishes what she has found in a book. We have many of this type of book available to us today. Because M was the only person actively doing research, the book is mainly based on her opinions and conclusions. Since she had done all the work to compile the information, she saw no need to justify or provide sources for her conclusions. It never occurred to her that anyone would disagree with what she had written. In fact, this isolation allowed M to reproduce her own interpretation of her family history. She could ignore the less attractive aspects of her family history and emphasize the more appealing ones. Because M was the "authority" on her family's history, subsequent researchers simply copied her work and passed it on as true. In a sense, the stories and information in the book became almost scriptural. It became heresy to question M or her conclusions.

There was another aspect of genealogy that arose in this pre-computer time. Because access to original records was severely limited and because genealogical research was hugely time-consuming, people would pay others to research their families. Genealogy as a persuasion became genealogy as a profession. However, the supply and the demand for professional genealogists were extremely limited. The number of "professional" genealogists in the entire world was limited to a few hundred active individuals. These professionals were clustered around the major sources of information such as the Family History Library in Salt Lake City, Utah, the National Archives in Washington, D.C., and other such institutions and archives around the world. Additionally, the professionals, because of the limits on time and availability, became "expert" in doing research in defined geographic areas. We still have significant vestiges of this geographically oriented genealogical research today.

We have a tendency to view "traditional" genealogical research in the same category as we would a piece of fine art or handicraft. We often think of traditional genealogists in the way we view extensive fine handicraft today. We tout the craftsmanship of "traditional" values. The reality is far different. My opinion, much of the work done by traditional genealogists has questionable value. I could give hundreds of examples. The main thrust of the information revolution vanguarded by access to computers and the internet has been to provide us universally with information to verify and correct the work done previously. Some of it is correct and valuable. DNA testing, online family trees, and vastly improved access and communication have all contributed to the reduction in duplication, and wrong conclusions of the past. We still have a huge overburden of traditional research methodology. But that is a topic I have written about in the past many times and will probably write about again.

Just as we would not now go back to riding horses to travel across our country unless we had a specific goal or reason to do so, we are not about to go back to the "traditional" ways of doing research.

Monday, July 30, 2018

Posts from The Family History Guide

http://www.thefhguide.com/blog/overcoming-myths-and-mistakes-in-your-family-history/?utm_source=The+Family+History+Guide+Association+Blog+Main&utm_campaign=6613948444-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_41be9f9d3a-6613948444-283099673
You may not be aware that The Family History Guide regularly posts to a blog. You can subscribe to the blog by email and learn about all the new features on the website as well as other topics. This featured article by Bob Taylor illustrates a common problem faced by many beginning genealogists; separating fact from fiction when it comes to family stories and traditions.

I might also remind everyone that The Family History Guide is sponsored by a non-profit corporation called The Family History Guide Association. All of the support for The Family History Guide website and other activities comes from volunteer help (like my participation) or from tax-deductible donations from contributors. For example, we have an upcoming RootsTech 2019 Conference and The Family History Guide would like to be there to teach about using the website. The reality is that this takes not only volunteers to attend and teach and staff the booth, but money. Yes, money. Contributing to The Family History Guide Association makes this possible. Take some time to visit The Family History Guide Association website and consider making a donation. I am only writing about this subject because I am convinced that The Family History Guide is part of the solution for helping more people become involved in learning about their family history.

http://www.thefhguide.com/association.html