Is ChatGPT worth using? Especially for genealogy and genealogy related uses?

 

The answers to the questions in the title of this post are both NO. So far, I have tried a number of different types of questions or suggestions to ChatGPT and the results have been helpful only if I just need some ideas and words. I find any reference to dates, places, or specific facts to be almost uniformly wrong. It may work for planning a trip, but I wouldn't rely on any specific facts about dates, times, or even addresses. It appears to me to be only a way to gather suggested topics. If you want facts, use Wikipedia which at least has some source references. If you want to see my analysis of a ChatGPT response on a post for Walking Arizona, see https://walkingarizona.blogspot.com/2023/04/paris-france-temple-of-church-of-jesus.html

United States Social Security NUMIDENT records added to FamilySearch.org

 

This is one of the collections of 63,700,494 records on the FamilySearch.org website that has only been available for a relatively short time. Here is the description of the files from the FamilySearch.org entry shown above. 

The Social Security Administration created these records to track the earnings of US workers and determine benefit entitlements. The publishable index only contains information for deceased individuals and was gathered from all three record types in the collection: applications, deaths, and claims. Each compiled record includes fields for the name of the deceased, social security number, parents' names, gender, birth city and state or country, birth date, and death date.

Here is an example of the content of a record for one of my relatives. 

Several of my searches for other relatives did not find any records and I am guessing that they either died too recently or did not have a social security account. You can see from this record that Donnette did not apply for Social Security coverage until she was about 73 years old. 

There is a more detailed description of the record set in the FamilySearch Research Wiki. 

https://www.familysearch.org/en/wiki/United_States,_Social_Security_Numerical_Identification_Files_(NUMIDENT)_-_FamilySearch_Historical_Records

I will be highlighting other useful collections from time to time. 

How long do SSDs and Hard Disk Drives Last?

 

Most of us (especially genealogists) probably assume our flash drives (Solid State Drives or SSDs) and hard drives will last forever. Of course, the biggest challenge with flash drives is the loss of the small devices. But as with all electronics, they have both a life expectancy and a technological-obsolescent life-span. By the way, electronics are consumables not durables. Another, by the way, hard drives are at the last stage of their existence due to obsolescence and are being rapidly replaced by SSDs. As of the date of this post, SSDs are still significantly more expensive per unit of storage than hard drives. For comparison, an 8TB (Terabytes or 1000 Gigabytes) Seagate external hard drive is going for about $140 online. However, an 8TB external SSD is in the range of $800 to over $1000.  

Even though SSDs are commonly thought to be longer lasting than hard drives because they have no moving parts, actual statistics indicate that we don't yet know how long they will last because the large server farms (data storage facilities) are just now getting enough of the drives to form a real basis for making predictions. The main issue during the ramp up of a new technology is whether to pay the premium price or wait until the new technology is established and the prices come down. 

Hard drive technology is well established and there are adequate statistics to determine a good rule of thumb for replacement of about five to six years. Of course, you could just keep using an old hard drive until it died, but if you want to do this, I suggest backing it up either with another newer hard drive or with online storage. The best practice is to have redundant backup capability. I suggest both external hard drives and online storage depending on your pain level if the data on your hard drive was lost. 

Ideally, you would have an external hard drive dedicated to backing up your computer's internal drive and then at least two or three other hard drives dedicated to backing up archived files such as scanned documents, scanned photos, digital photos, and any other documents and records that you would like preserved. You start with two or three new drives and then start rotating them with new drives every few years until you get a series of hard drives about two to three years apart in age. Then you begin rotating out the oldest drive as it reaches about five years of age. 

As of the date of this post, 16TB and 18TB hard drives are becoming available and the prices are dropping rapidly. Unless you are determined to document every moment of your life with video, it is unlikely that you could ever fill up a 16TB hard drive. My forty years of accumulated computer files are just about 8TBs, but I know that a lot of those files are duplicates. 

You also need to realize that your computer has a hard drive and that after about five years, not only will your computer be obsolete, but the hard drive will be ready to die. These facts should clearly demonstrate the need for a redundant backup system. We all think our homes are a safe place until a fire or a tornado or an earthquake or a flood happens in our immediate location and destroys everything in or on our homes. Insurance is great in these situations, but can insurance compensate you for the loss of the information on the drives?

Right now, the possible increase in longevity of flash drives does not warrant the increased cost, but like anything having to do with technology, all that might change tomorrow. 

Now on the Mount of Remembrance - The Book of Names of Holocaust Victims

 

"A name for eternity" - Yad Vashem's Book of Names.

Quoting from a recent email:

In a massive endeavor spanning seven decades, Yad Vashem has worked to gather the names of the six million Jews murdered in the Holocaust. The Book of Names of Holocaust Victims is the unique result of meticulous and painstaking work that commemorates 4,800,000 men, women and children whose details have been gathered and uncovered over the years. Every name, date of birth, hometown and place of death is clearly printed and illuminated by a gentle beam of light that shines from between the pages.

Recently, the Book of Names of Holocaust Victims was inaugurated on the Mount of Remembrance in Jerusalem in the presence of President of the State of Israel Isaac Herzog, Yad Vashem Chairman Dani Dayan, Chairman of the Yad Vashem Council Rabbi Israel Meir Lau, and other Holocaust Survivors.

The public is invited to come view - and touch - Book of Names of Holocaust Victims, now on permanent display on the Mount of Remembrance in Jerusalem. Admission is free.

During my recent research into my Jewish ancestry, I discovered name after name of those who were killed in the Holocaust or the Shoah. With each name, I had a deep feeling of sadness. No longer is the Holocaust something that happened to others, it happened to me and parts of my own family.  

Artificial Intelligence Compared

 

I recently wrote a couple of articles about ChatGPT (https://chat.openai.com/) I had some serious issues with the accuracy and consistency of what was produced from a relatively simple search question. Now, I also have access to Google's Bard. So, I decided to see how the two sources matched up with the same question. 

To start, here is what I got from Bard in answer to this request. 

Tell me about genealogical cluster research.

Cluster genealogy is a research technique employed by genealogists to learn more about an ancestor by examining records left by the ancestor's cluster. A person's cluster consists of the extended family, friends, neighbors, and other associates such as business partners. Researching the lives of an ancestor's cluster leads to a more complete and more accurate picture of the ancestor's life.

To meet the Genealogical Proof Standard, a genealogist must "conduct reasonably exhaustive research involving all information that is or may be pertinent to the identity, relationship, event, or situation in question." (Emphasis added.) It follows that a reasonably exhaustive research will often include a search of records created by persons in the target ancestor's cluster. To develop context for an ancestor's life. The facts of an ancestor's life are often meaningful only in the context of his cluster.

There are many ways to do cluster genealogy research. Some common methods include:

• Studying census records to identify the people who lived near your ancestor.
• Searching for land records to see who owned property near your ancestor.
• Looking for obituaries and death records to learn about the people who died near your ancestor.
• Searching for newspaper articles to learn about the events that affected the people who lived near your ancestor.
• Studying church records to identify the people who were members of the same church as your ancestor.
• Examining business records to see who worked with your ancestor.

Cluster genealogy research can be a very effective way to learn more about your ancestors. By examining the records left by the people who lived in your ancestor's cluster, you can gain a deeper understanding of your ancestor's life and the world in which they lived.

Sources - Learn more

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cluster_genealogy

Now, I don't need an advanced ai program to copy material from Wikipedia. The response is accurate and, I must say, would give a good introduction to the subject. So let's go with ChatGPT and the same request. 

Genealogical cluster research is a type of genealogical research that involves studying groups of individuals who are linked together through shared family connections. Rather than focusing on just one individual or family line, genealogical cluster research looks at multiple families within a specific geographic or cultural context, such as a town, village, or ethnic group.

The goal of genealogical cluster research is to uncover patterns of migration, social relationships, and other connections between families that can help shed light on broader historical or sociological trends. This type of research often involves examining historical records such as census records, church records, and other types of public documents to trace family relationships and identify common ancestors.

One important aspect of genealogical cluster research is the use of DNA testing to confirm or refute family relationships. This can be especially useful in cases where written records are incomplete or have been lost over time. DNA testing can also help researchers identify shared genetic markers among different family lines, which can provide clues about migration patterns and other historical events.

Overall, genealogical cluster research is a valuable tool for historians, genealogists, and other researchers who are interested in understanding the complex social and historical connections between different families and communities. 

Not as much information, no citation to Wikipedia, but essentially the same information without the detail from Bard. But what about Wikipedia? Here is the link to the Wikipedia article. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cluster_genealogy

This has five sources, all of which are useful. I t also has a number of links to other sources of information. In short, the Wikipedia article is definitely more useful than either of the summaries given by the ai programs. The programs would both have done a better job if they had just answered by giving me a list of sources to look at. 

 

 

Despite Limitations Artificial Intelligence Will Benefit Genealogy

 

Although many of the news stories about artificial intelligence focus on its negative aspects, genealogy will greatly benefit from some of those same supposed defects. When it comes down to it, genealogy is all about information. Over the past 40 years, I have spent a huge amount of my time looking for documents and records or plodding through documents and records trying to find one piece of information about an ancestor. The combination of handwriting recognition, computer-aided all-word indexing, and the continued increase in the availability of high-resolution digital imaging, will immensely increase my own personal capability to do an increased amount of research. 

Presently, the entire international genealogical community is awash in valuable genealogical information. One example is the claim made by Ancestry.com at RootsTech 2023, that this one company will add 50 billion new digitized records during the year. See https://www.familysearch.org/rootstech/session/annual-ancestry-update. Meanwhile, almost every genealogical company is claiming features enhanced with artificial intelligence. From my perspective, all the hype about artificial intelligence boils down to the fact that it is only an extension of technology that has been developing for well over 200 years since Lady Ada Lovelace and Charles Babbage teamed up to program the first computer. The current programs touted breakthroughs are only possible because of the increase in computer memory and speed and the development of the vast world-wide internet.

One of the most dramatic examples of the impact of artificial intelligence is the recent emergence of success in using handwriting recognition technology.  The completion of the first level all-word indexing of the 1950 Census in nine days by Ancestry.com is the prime example. See "Ancestry® Proprietary Artificial Intelligence-Powered Handwriting Recognition Technology Processes Over 150 Million Records from the 1950 U.S. Census in Only 9 Days."

Mostly unnoticed by genealogists, FamilySearch.org and others are using handwriting recognition to index millions of records every week. In February of 2022, FamilySearch reported that they had used Computer Aided Indexing using artificial intelligence to index the following:

As of 7 February 2022 FamilySearch has processed the following via CAI:

• Images: 34,539,076
• Records: 174,022,816

Every week FamilySearch processes new natural image groups that fit the criteria above: this is done by updating the metadata of existing natural image groups and through new image acquisitions. Users should return regularly to determine if new image groups have been processed via CAI.

See FamilySearch Computer Aided Indexing

I have not been able find any statistics about the indexing since that date. 

A recent article entitled, "How FamilySearch is using the future to discover the past with AI," provides some additional information. Ultimately, this technology will continue to mature, and the number of indexed documents will increase. There is a need to review the CAI indexed documents, and this will ultimately replace the human involvement in direct indexing. 

Another amazing technological advance is being made with Computer-Generated Trees. This is defined as:

A collection of family trees created by a computer. The computer interprets historical records to construct a tree for a particular location and time period.

See https://www.familysearch.org/search/genealogies/collection/10000130 

This project was mentioned during the FamilySearch What's New presentation by Craig Miller at RootsTech 2023. See https://youtu.be/WwqxwC1eIDg

This is just the tip of the iceberg of the innovative technology that will affect genealogy in the very near future. 

The real limitations of Artificial Intelligence: Incomplete, Inaccurate, Misleading, and Flat Out Wrong

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is getting a lot of online commentary lately. Some of the pundits are wringing their hands about how many jobs will be lost when AI goes mainstream. See "23+ Artificial Intelligence and Job Loss Statistics [2023]: How Job Automation Impacts the workforce." and many other such articles. It is interesting that all the statistics cited seem to be speculation since the only reference to any kind of study is one statement that says, "Artificial intelligence and job loss statistics,,," without referring to any specific statistical studies. I am not intending to pick on any one article, but this type of response to technological change has been occurring steadily since 1811 in England with the luddite movement objected to mechanized looms and knitting frames. 

A short time ago, I wrote a blog post entitled, “How will Artificial Intelligence affect Genealogy?” where I pointed out several inaccurate statements made by a ChatGPT response about one of my ancestors. I decided to try another response, this time, using a general request to write about doing genealogical research in Portugal. I spent some time recently reviewing genealogical research in Portugal for a Sunday Class from the BYU Family History Library. A recording of the class will shortly be posted on the BYU Family History Library YouTube Channel. 

Here is the description I used to elicit the response below.

“Describe the availability of genealogical records in Portuguese and archives in Portugal with citations to useful websites”

Genealogical records in Portugal are typically held by the Portuguese Civil Registration Offices, the National Archives of Portugal, and the Catholic Church. These records include birth, marriage, and death records, as well as census records, military records, and property records.

The Portuguese Civil Registration Offices hold records from 1911 to the present day. [This is not correct, Portuguese civil registration records go back to 1832 and These records are available to the public, but access is restricted to those who can prove a direct relationship to the individual(s) named in the records. The records can be requested online through the website of the Portuguese Ministry of Justice: https://www.justica.gov.pt/Servicos/Registos/

The National Archives of Portugal hold a variety of genealogical records, including parish registers, notarial records, and other documents related to Portuguese history. These records are available to the public and can be accessed in person at the National Archives building in Lisbon or online through their website: https://digitarq.arquivos.pt/

The Catholic Church in Portugal also holds a significant number of genealogical records, including baptismal, marriage, and death records dating back to the 16th century. These records are typically stored at the parish level, and access is often restricted to researchers who can prove a direct relationship to the individual(s) named in the records. The website of the Portuguese Episcopal Conference provides information on how to contact individual parishes to request access to these records: https://www.conferenciaepiscopal.pt/

In addition to these sources, there are also a number of online databases and websites that can be useful for researching Portuguese genealogy. Some of these include:

• FamilySearch (https://www.familysearch.org/en/): a free online genealogy database that includes a variety of Portuguese records

• MyHeritage (https://www.myheritage.com/): a subscription-based genealogy website that includes a large collection of Portuguese records

• Genea Portugal (https://genea-portugal.com/): a website dedicated to Portuguese genealogy research, with resources and databases for researchers.

https://www.familysearch.org/en/wiki/Portugal_Genealogy 

It's important to note that the availability and accessibility of genealogical records in Portugal can vary depending on the region and the specific records being searched. It may be necessary to consult multiple sources and organizations in order to find the information you are looking for.

On its face, this seems to be adequate and helpful. However, I am reminded of a book published about my family line. Here is the citation to this book. 

Tanner, Maurice, and George C Tanner. 1923. Descendants of John Tanner; Born August 15, 1778, at Hopkintown, R.I., Died April 15, 1850, at South Cottonwood, Salt Lake County, Utah; [Place of publication not identified.

The conclusions contained in this book about the “original” Tanner immigrant ancestor to Rhode Island are inaccurate, incomplete, unsupported by sources, misleading, and have caused many people to be lead away from doing accurate and complete research. I have to say the same thing about ChatGPT response. 

Here are just a few of the problems presented by the seemingly innocuous ChatGPT response about Portuguese genealogical research. 

1. The best places to find instructions about genealogical records in Portugal are the FamilySearch Research Wike article that begins with Portugal Genealogy and The Family History Guide article on Portugal. 

2. The ChatGPT article points to both FamilySearch and MyHeritage as sources for researching Portuguese genealogy. The statement is correct but previous statements about the location and availability of both Catholic church records and Civil Registration Records are contradictory and misleading. FamilySearch has huge numbers digitized records of both Civil Registration records and Catholic Church records online for free. In addition, the Portuguese National Archives, correctly identified as Torre do Tombo National Archives, also has accessible parish and civil registration records. The ChatGPT statements about the availability of both the parish registers and civil registrations records are misleading and wrong. In addition, MyHeritage has 14 collections of indexes to Portuguese Church records, but these are mostly indexes and have relatively few copies of the original records. 

3. The link provided to Genea-Portugal.com does not exist. Although, Geneall.net is a Portuguese public internet database on family history and genealogy, mainly concerning Royalty and Aristocracy around the world.

4. The link to the Justice Department is for current records and as it the case with most recent government records around the world there are privacy limitations for access to these records. 

5. It ends up that huge numbers of Portuguese Catholic Church records, Civil Registration records, and other records are available on the FamilySearch.org website. Many of these records are accessible through the FamilySearch catalog and others are accessible in the Images section. 

In short, there are one or two links in the ChatGPT article that are helpful, but the rest of the explanation is either wrong or misleading. Finding and researching Portuguese genealogy records is far easier than portrayed by the ChatGPT article. 

If you decide to use ChatGPT or any other artificial intelligence source, I suggest that you become aware of the limitations and possible issues from text generated by anyone artificial or real that misstates facts. Before you jump off into the current trend of artificial intelligence, try using some of your own.