I decided that I would do one of those end-of-the-year type of
looking back to see where we have come in the world of genealogy posts and it
turns out to be fairly complicated. Not just because there was a lot
going on this year, but because there is no convenient place to stop. I could
list all the conferences and expos, all the meetings and other events, but that
wouldn't really tell anyone what happened. So I have opted for a more general
analysis. A review of the trends and changes that will affect what we do as
genealogists (and what we do in a lot of other areas of our lives also) during
the coming year and henceforth.
Trend
No. 1: The beginning of the end of the desktop computer.
The current configuration of microcomputers dates back to the
concept of a "computer in a box" illustrated by the early Apple and
IBM PC computers. Of course, the flaw in this early concept was the fact that
most of the peripheral devices such as the computer’s monitor, external floppy
disk drives, printers and other similar items were not contained within the
"box." In addition, concurrent technological developments affected
computer monitors, telephones, television sets, stereo audio complements and an
ever-increasing number of similar devices. Early on there were two parallel
trends in computer development; ever more powerful component computers sold as
"desktops" and smaller more portable computers sold as
"laptops."
During the past year or so, we have seen the culmination of these
trends as more and more peripheral devices are incorporated within the computer
itself. Today's typical tablet or lightweight laptop computer is the current
end product of this evolution. The average tablet computer made available this
year, contains a high resolution camera, and Internet connection, and most of
the software functionality of a desktop computer. If you also consider, the
smart phone, you add the telephonic capability to the same computer functions.
More and more, computer users are
abandoning the traditional desktop configuration for the more portable and
convenient smart phone, tablet or laptop. See PC Sales
Set to Decline For Years, Analyst Warns. Meanwhile, when was the last
time that you remember a major computer manufacturer introducing an innovative
new desktop computer? For example, Apple introduced an upgrade to its
all-in-one-box iMac computer but there is also discussion that it may
discontinue its high-end Mac Pro computer.
Trend
No. 2: The migration of more software functions to the Cloud.
During the past year, we saw an acceleration in the transition of
local-based software to cloud-based software. Even in the conservative area of genealogical
software, the trend is towards utilization of online services in conjunction
with local software. Two of the major online genealogical database providers,
Ancestry.com and MyHeritage.com, continued to provide additional cloud sourced
benefits to their customers as well as local genealogical database programs.
But the question raised again and again during the year was whether or not it
was even necessary to have your own computer program on your individual
computer? It is very doubtful, that all of the millions of users of cloud-based
genealogical databases have their own individual software programs. As the
functionality of cloud-based programs increases the question will continue to
rise as to the advisability of maintaining your own individual database.
Trend
No. 3: The saturation of the social networking environment.
There is no question that social networking has become one of the
dominant forces our modern society. This includes the genealogical community.
The issue is whether or not we have reached the level of saturation where it is
practically impossible to absorb any further social networking options? The
latest development is the creation of genealogical special interest groups
online in larger social networking context. For example, in the past two or
three months or as been a movement to add Facebook specialty groups and Google+
interest groups for genealogists. Are genealogists ready to give up even more
research time simply to "hang out" online?
Trend
No. 4: The consolidation of commercial online genealogy.
Calendar year 2012 saw an acceleration of the expansion of the
larger genealogical database companies with significant acquisitions and
partnerships. There's no question that this trend will continue in the future
with additional acquisitions and consolidations. Whether you agree that this is
a good or a bad idea, begs the issue because the forces are already in place to
continue the expansion.
Trend
No. 5: The realization of the insular nature of genealogical data.
This is a result of the continued expansion of the larger genealogical
databases, the need for a common data interchange format for genealogy became
even more crucially evident. It was agreed by the larger community, that the
GEDCOM standard had become obsolete because it had not kept up with the
expansion of multimedia and online resources. The year 2012 saw significant
efforts directed towards initiating discussion of data communication standards.
The future should see more efforts in this regard.
Trend
No. 6: The advent of the unified family tree option.
One of the most significant events during the past year was the
introduction of the FamilySearch.org Family Tree program as a unified online
option. Although, the program remains in the development stage and is still in
the process of being introduced, it may yet prove to be a fundamentally
revolutionary development assuming it does not get bogged down in the data as
did New.FamilySearch.org.
Trend
No. 7: The continued marginalization of genealogical societies.
Genealogical societies have a long and storied history in the
United States and other countries but except for some of the larger
organizations that operate on a national basis, organized societies have failed
to keep up with the vast technological changes especially the explosion of
social media. For example, a sample search on Facebook.com for
"genealogical society" brings up almost no results. If the statistics
from the large online genealogical databases are correct then there are
literally millions of people around the world posting fair family history information
online. But with only a few exceptions, the genealogical societies seem absent
from this online phenomena. Another example, the Federation of Genealogical
Societies has a Facebook.com page, but at the time of the writing of this post
it had 926 Facebook “likes,” while at the same time, Ancestry.com, had 389,217
likes. Very few regional or local genealogical societies have any significant
presence in any of the social media. If this trend continues, the societies
will continue to become more marginalized.
Trend
No. 8: The consolidation and
contradictory proliferation of genealogical conferences.
In 2011, RootsTech.org began the process of consolidating
genealogy conferences. The initial conference was billed as a consolidation of
three previously held conferences. In 2013, an additional conference was added
and consolidated into RootsTech.org. At the same time, and what seems to be a
contradictory trend, there seems to be a proliferation of smaller conferences
scattered all over the country. The impact of these seemingly opposing trends
remains to be seen. But it is evident that the market, if there is one, for
genealogical seminars and conferences may become saturated.
Trend
No. 8: Automated research and source record matching.
One of the most dramatic technological advances in genealogical
research has been the development of automated research and source record
matching by the larger genealogical databases. Both Ancestry.com and
MyHeritage.com have introduced very successful and comprehensive research aids
that attempt to match individuals in a user's online family tree with source
records in the database. This technology has proved to be extremely valuable
and accurate. If this trend continues it may well be that the genealogical
researcher will be inundated with source material.
I'm sure there are other trends that I could discuss. I would be
glad to entertain comments and perhaps do a follow-up blog post concerning some
additional ideas.